DFS MLB GPP Study Guide: TNYooper (Me!), $150, 7-6-18

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Congratulations to TNYooper. Once again, it’s not a winner. But once again, I’m in the Top 60.

DFS MLB has become somewhat profitable. May 22 was my first taste of major success when a major GPP lineup finished at No. 15. That netted me $750. After a few more Top 200 finishes, June 22 featured a No. 23 finish in a smaller GPP that netted me $75.

Consider July 6 my third major victory: A No. 59 finish in the MLB $200K Mini 8’s GPP contest. The lineup scored 180.6. That finish netted me $150. I’ve started submitting more lineups. I had nine submissions with eight different lineups. Those submissions included an $8 GPP, seven Quarter Arcades (7 x $0.25 = $1.75) and a Free Roll ($0). Seven of those nine submissions cashed out. My $9.75 entry fees turned into $175. One of my Quarter Arcade teams finished No. 2.

I’ve decided to complete a study guide on this lineup. It’s not a winner…but it gives gamers a perspective on my teams when I’m finding success as opposed to projecting others’ game-theorizing tactics. My previous study guides have analyzed what others had done to create winning lineups. Completing those tutorials helped me to create enhanced lineups.

Let’s analyze my $150 ($2000 if I didn’t switch from Lance Lynn to Sonny Gray at the last moment) lineup.

NOTE: I’ll occasionally refer to myself as TNYooper instead of I for keyword purposes.

DFS MLB DraftKings $150 Lineup: TNYooper, 7-6-18

This roster used $49800 of its $50000 salary. This slate featured 14 matchups.

So TNYooper went to bed after Sonny Gray decided to start the night with a -2.9. MINUS 2.9. I was baffled to see this team finish No. 59. I had eight different lineups. For some reason, I played Gray in all of them. Six of them cashed, with one of them cashing in two different GPPs.

Most of my successes come with a 4-3-1 stack. Trying to use players from multiple contests complicate matters. Focus more on which games will produce the highest run totals. Stack from those games. Try to find two high-scoring games. See if they’re compatible with one another. e.g. Boston’s outfield and Colorado’s infield.

SP: Zack Godley ($8600, 14.4%, 26.5)
SP: Sonny Gray ($6800, 14.8%, -2.9)
Combined Salary: $15400
Points: 23.6

TNYooper had five pitchers whom he targeted based on BABIP and SIERA progression probabilities.

1: Zack Godley $8600
2a: Sonny Gray $6800
2b: Lance Lynn $6400
3: German Marquez $5800
4: Nick Pivetta $8400 

For TNYooper, Godley vs Pivetta was easy. Godley was pitching at home in an easier matchup. I’ve used Pivetta two or three times before. Pivetta combined for an “It’s Under Negative 9000!”. His upside wasn’t enough to tolerate another implosion risk. Stacking Pivetta and Gray on the same team? You can imagine the consequences of such an act.

Gray and Lynn are listed as 2a and 2b. My original lineup featured Lynn as my No. 2 pitcher. Then I made a last minute switch-a-roo. I recalled that Gray’s struggles are typically at Yankees Stadium. His road splits were far superior. Even though I liked Lynn’s upside a tad more because of strikeout potential against an inferior opponent, I talked myself into using Gray.

D’oh!

This is the third personal guide where I’ve had to admit a mistake with my pitching decisions. May 22’s roster was choosing Gerrit Cole over Chris Sale when Sale was pitching at Tampa Bay (lefties at Tampa…just look at David Price and Blake Snell). That decision dropped me from No. 6 to No. 15. June 22’s roster was deciding against paying up for Jon Gray from Luis Castillo, even though I knew Gray had tremendous upside.

Changing to Gray from Lynn was changing a 16.7 to a -2.9. Yes…MINUS 2.9. That 19.6-point difference would’ve placed me at 200.2…0.1 points ahead of Awesemo for sixth place. Via RotoGrinders, Awesemo is the No. 1 DFS player. The No. 6 slot paid out $2000. My No. 59 slot paid out $150.

Let’s review: I spent 400 fewer DraftKings dollars (Gray $6800, Lynn $6400) to lose $1850 real dollars (playing Gray = $150, playing Lynn = $2000).

How much impact can one roster decision have? Jordan Zimmermann at $6700, available for $100 less than Gray, scored a 39.6. bd081668 won this GPP with a 219.1. If I played Zimmermann instead of Gray, my roster scores a 223.1. Gray to Zimmermann turns a $150 pay out into $25000.

I never considered playing Zimmermann though. Lynn, yes. Zimmermann…zero chance. I had zero intentions of playing him. I’m just pointing out the costliness of one mistake.

There’s one small victory I can take: bd081668’s world-beater lineup may have outscored my pitching staff (62.1 to 23.6). BUT…my batters kept up with his: 157 to 157. This makes me the Dusty Baker-managed Cincinnati Reds teams of DFS: Loaded offense with a manager who’ll mismanage any and all pitching decisions.

I’m bringing SexyBats. Maybe I can hire newly unemployed Chris Bosio to help me with pitchers?

C: Andrew Knapp ($3200, 2.4%, 29)
OF: Odubel Herrera ($4500, 2.3%, 27)
OF: Rhys Hoskins ($4900, 2.0%, 25)
1B: Carlos Santana ($4100, 2.3%, 19)
Combined Salary: $16700
Points: 100

Quite possibly my first truly great stack. The Philadelphia Phillies were my No. 1 lineup to attack. Although their offense has been cold, they had a good matchup with a lot of lefty hitters facing the slumping Trevor Williams. Williams entered this game with a 4.22 ERA and 2018 .257 BABIP. His 4.62 SIERA and career .283 BABIP both indicated more regression was ahead.

The Phillies scored 17 runs. And it wasn’t like the previous day when my Washington Nationals stack featuring Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon combined for six DraftKings points in a 14-12 game. The good hitters actually got the hits!

My logic for using Knapp was that he was a catcher in what I projected as a high-scoring affair. It helped that he had played well heading into the contest. I’d never anticipate anything close to a 29 from him. It’s just how it worked out. Maybe he felt bad that I played Sonny Gray.

OF: Josh Reddick ($4000, 4.6%, 17)
2B: Jose Altuve ($5000, 6.3%, 15)
3B: Alex Bregman ($5500, 3.4%, 13)
Combined Salary: $13500
Points: 45

Remember when Reynaldo Lopez had an ERA in the high-2s, low-3s? SIERA data indicated that Reynaldo Lopez would tail off. That’s what has happened. Lopez entered this game with a 3.68 ERA and a 5.12 SIERA. His 2018 .261 BABIP and career .278 BABIP enforced confidence that another rough outing was ahead. Now let’s factor in that weak White Sox bullpen. High potential for an avalanche effect.

The bullpen did them in. Lopez surrendered third earned runs in 4.2 innings. He should’ve surrendered more runs when one considers that he allowed six hits and five walks. The real gold came when Hector Santiago surrendered seven runs (six earned) in one inning. Another example of taking consideration of opponents’ bullpens.

Not a bad stack. It’s just that most of the damage came from catcher/designated hitter Evan Gattis. Gattis went 3-for-4 with four RBI, two runs, a homer, double, and a walk. Houston has a way of terrorizing opposing pitchers with their 6-9 hitters. Derek Fisher, Jake Marisnick, Tony Kemp and Brian McCann have all posted huge numbers when they’re down the card, often when their top stars get zeroes. Gattis and Tim Federowicz continued that trend.

Not an A-plus stack like with Philadelphia. But good enough to carry its own weight. A 3.33x value. Anything reaching 3x is solid.

SS: Nick Ahmed ($3200, 9.5%, 12)
Salary: $3200
Points: 12

My last roster decision came on whether I wanted to sacrifice Zack Godley and spend up for Francisco Lindor or just go with Godley and use a right-handed SS who’s facing a left-handed pitcher that appeared like a possible regression candidate (Joey Lucchesi). I went with Godley. Technically, I could’ve gotten more from German Marquez plus Lindor…but it was close enough.

Ahmed’s always worth consideration when facing LHPs, especially when he’s available at his typical low-to-mid-$3000s price range. Consider his career splits: 104 wRC+, .334 wOBA, .780 OPS vs LHP; 48 wRC+, .250 wOBA, .577 OPS vs RHP. And if one tracks his last two seasons, his vs LHP splits are borderline elite. He still hits RHPs far below league average.

OFF TOPIC P.S.
One day after this lineup (July 7), I created my all-time highest scoring lineup with a 216.90. That was good enough to finish No. 17 out of 13803 contestants in a Single Entry Freeroll. That was the day when the Arizona Diamondbacks (20), Washington Nationals (18) and Boston Red Sox (15) combined to score 53 runs. So…yeah, I reckon it wasn’t too hard to get my first 200-plus team there.

And yes—I had to make another pitcher decision (Robbie Ray vs Ross Stripling). I chose Ray. Wrong. D’oh!

CLOSING NOTE

Anyone who has questions or concerns can email me. DO NOT EMAIL ME ASKING FOR PROJECTIONS. I’ll ignore such requests. Below are the most recent installments of the series. Visit my profile to check out the full selection. I started creating these in late April. I’ll do as many of them as time allows.

Previous MLB GPP Winners Study Guides:

boggslite, $25K, 7-3-18

Pandamonious, $100K, 6-18-18

CoachS111, $20K, 5-30-18

jomar15, $5K, 5-17-18

anilprao88, $25K, 5-11-18

Lixitandstixit, $7.5K, 5-10-18

Slimeysid, $25K, 5-8-18

Nickvanderlip, $20K, 5-7-18

dacoltz, $25K, 5-4-18

magneto999, $25K, 5-2-18

RoyalPain21, $20K, 5-1-18

bhy101, $25K, 4-30-18

nrpeto11, $5K, 4-25-18

petteytheft89, $100K, 4-23-18

PERSONAL GUIDES (TNYooper Successes)

TNYooper (Me!), $75, 6-22-18 (23rd place)

TNYooper (Me!), $750, 5-22-18 (15th place) 

Joshua Huffman was born and collegiately edumacated in Middle Tennessee. That said, Huffman spent 13-plus years with the type of Northern Wisconsinites and Yoopers who turn Nashville bars into alcohol wastelands whenever NFC North teams travel to play the Tennessee Titans. This makes him the NoBro of SoBros. He has published content for Yahoo! Sports (via Contributor Network) and Titan Sized, among other venues. At SoBros, he’ll provide Daily Fantasy Sports suggestions and broad sports coverage. Check out more of his musings at his blog, Millennial on Maple Street.

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