Congratulations to TNYooper…which is me. Although I didn’t win, I achieved a personal DFS MLB milestone when my $8 submission finished No. 15 out of 36,764 teams in the MLB $250K Rally Cap contest on May 22, 2018. TNYooper finished with a lineup scoring 171.1 points. The winner of this contest, jhorrall777, won $50000 when his team scored 196.05 points.
No. 15? Lou Pickles would be proud.
Why am I doing a study guide on a losing submission? My previous study guides have analyzed what others had done to create winning lineups. Completing those tutorials helped me create enhanced lineups. Now I can give folks a look at how I’m interpreting other winners’ tactics and using it to increase my chances of winning money, even though I typically submit 1-2 teams per non-weekend.
The next time I write one of these guides about myself? Hopefully, I’ll top the charts 😉
Let’s analyze my $750 lineup.
(Before we begin, I’m referring to myself throughout this piece as TNYooper instead of “I” because of SEO).
DFS MLB DraftKings $750 Lineup: TNYooper, 5-22-18
This roster used $48900 of its $50000 salary. This slate featured 15 matchups.
You’re about to see another double-team stack having success in a large GPP tournament. TNYooper lineup featured team stacks from the Los Angeles Dodgers and Cleveland Indians. Brian Dozier was thrown in as a second baseman who had multiple reasons for why he should’ve had a good outing against Matthew Boyd and Detroit’s bullpen. Throw in two pitchers, and TNYooper had a chart-topping contender that fell just short.
The first task for TNYooper before every slate is to create a notepad file containing various sabermetric notes for each pitcher. Each pitcher is placed into four separate categories: Progression, Regression, Other, and Limited. Below is that file:
PROGRESSION (ERA >= 0.4 SIERA)
J.A. Happ 9500 vs LAA
.298 BABIP (.290 car), 4.15 ERA (3.94 car), 2.91 SIERA, 11.42 K/9 (7.88 car)
Vince Velasquez 7500 vs ATL
.309 BABIP (.314 car), 4.37 ERA (4.44 car), 3.63 SIERA, 10.46 K/9 (9.79 car)
Zack Wheeler 7200 vs MIA
.324 BABIP (.306 car), 5.92 ERA (4.09 car), 4.29 SIERA, 9.00 K/9 (8.57 car)
Caleb Smith 6400 at NYM
.289 BABIP (.298 car), 4.22 ERA (5.28 car), 3.74 SIERA, 12.02 K/9 (11.01 car)
Brandon McCarthy 6200 at PHI
.361 BABIP (.299 car), 5.05 ERA (4.19 car), 4.27 SIERA, 7.38 K/9 (6.66 car)
Matt Harvey 5800 vs PIT
.306 BABIP (.294 car), 6.17 ERA (3.66 car), 4.39 SIERA, 6.94 K/9 (8.61 car)
Jason Hammel 4600 at STL
.297 BABIP (.301 car), 6.28 ERA (4.57 car), 5.33 SIERA, 4.58 K/9 (7.06 car)
Lance Lynn 4500 vs DET
.394 BABIP (.300 car), 7.47 ERA (3.53 car), 5.07 SIERA, 9.88 K/9 (8.51 car)
Mike Leake 4400 at OAK
.325 BABIP (.296 car), 6.00 ERA (4.05 car), 4.78 SIERA, 6.00 K/9 (6.12 car)
REGRESSION (SIERA >= 0.4 ERA)
Trevor Bauer 11700 at CHC
.278 BABIP (.300 car), 2.59 ERA (4.23 car), 3.54 SIERA, 10.22 K/9 (8.82 car)
Cole Hamels 9200 vs NYY
.271 BABIP (.284 car), 3.48 ERA (3.37 car), 3.90 SIERA, 9.93 K/9 (8.52 car)
Matthew Boyd 8300 at MIN
.261 BABIP (.306 car), 3.19 ERA (5.14 car), 4.27 SIERA, 7.69 K/9 (7.36 car)
Jeremy Hellickson 8000 vs SD
.239 BABIP (.268 car), 2.20 ERA (4.06 car), 3.58 SIERA, 7.16 K/9 (6.61 car)
Jhoulys Chacin 6800 vs ARZ
.259 BABIP (.283 car), 3.63 ERA (3.92 car), 5.12 SIERA, 6.23 K/9 (7.06 car)
Tyler Chatwood 6500 vs CLE
.266 BABIP (.299 car), 3.14 ERA (4.24 car), 5.60 SIERA, 8.37 K/9 (6.23 car)
Chad Bettis 6300 at LAD
.256 BABIP (.310 car), 3.27 ERA (4.81 car), 4.82 SIERA, 5.73 K/9 (6.56 car)
James Shields 5300 vs BAL
.253 BABIP (.296 car), 4.88 ERA (3.99 car), 5.32 SIERA, 5.86 K/9 (7.72 car)
OTHER (ERA -0.4 SIERA<x<0.4 SIERA)
Chris Sale 13100 at TB
.267 BABIP (.291 car), 2.29 ERA (2.95 car), 2.57 SIERA, 12.43 K/9 (10.63 car)
Gerrit Cole 12900 vs SF
.263 BABIP (.309 car), 1.75 ERA (3.37 car), 2.09 SIERA, 13.57 K/9 (8.82 car)
Luke Weaver 8500 vs KC
.292 BABIP (.333 car), 4.37 ERA (4.50 car), 4.29 SIERA, 7.99 K/9 (9.94 car)
Garrett Richards 7800 at TOR
.261 BABIP (.281 car), 3.47 ERA (3.52 car), 3.73 SIERA, 10.22 K/9 (7.69 car)
Kevin Gausman 7600 at CWS
.290 BABIP (.312 car), 3.88 ERA (4.15 car), 4.01 SIERA, 7.76 K/9 (8.30 car)
Trevor Cahill 7400 vs SEA
.271 BABIP (.286 car), 2.79 ERA (4.08 car), 2.79 SIERA, 9.93 K/9 (6.69 car)
Jameson Taillon 7300 at CIN
.327 BABIP (.317 car), 3.97 ERA (3.98 car), 4.08 SIERA, 7.94 K/9 (7.95 car)
Jake Faria 5600 vs BOS
.252 BABIP (.261 car), 5.20 ERA (4.03 car), 5.11 SIERA, 7.00 K/9 (8.13 car)
LIMITED
Domingo German 6600 at TEX
15th car game, 3rd car start: 4.26 ERA (3.86 car), 3.86 SIERA, 9.95 K/9 (10.44 car)
Andrew Suarez 6000 at HOU
6th car start: .329 BABIP, 4.88 ERA, 3.33 SIERA, 9.11 K/9
Matt Koch 4800 at MIL
8th car game, 7th car start: .223 BABIP, 4.06 ERA, 4.88 SIERA, 4.78 K/9
Brock Stewart 4500 vs COL —
Eric Lauer 4200 at WAS
6th car start: .384 BABIP, 8.14 ERA, 5.09 SIERA, 7.71 K/9
Typically, TNYooper uses the Regression list to determine what pitchers to stack against.TNyooper uses the Progression list to determine what pitchers to play. TNYooper uses personal evaluations on Others and Limited. Those evaluations are largely based on split advantages via the lineups they’re facing and how they’ve fared in previous outings.
For what it’s worth, car = career.
SP: Gerrit Cole ($12900, 32.0%)
SP: Lance Lynn ($4500, 9.4%)
Combined Salary: $17400
Points: 48.1
Not even 10 percent ownership on a $4500 Lynn vs the injury-depleted Detroit Tigers? That’s half his regular price when he’s facing a better offense than Detroit. People have soured on him after starting 2018 with a 7.47 ERA.
Lynn is a cheap veteran whom some refer to as a “gas can.” TNYooper refers to them as “gold.” These pitchers are tight-rope walkers who, with another bad performance, would risk a bullpen demotion or designation for assignment (DFA). I’ve stated in previous study guides, but I’m a fan of using sub-$6000 pitchers, especially when their SIERAs suggest a progression. Although Lynn’s 5.07 SIERA is ugly, it didn’t match with his 7.47 ERA. Plus, Lynn has a lengthy career sample size that proves he’s better than his current SIERA.
Cheap pitchers are often motivated, in quality matchups, and due for progression. Nearly any veteran pitcher is capable of tossing a quality start. And a quality start on a $4500 salary? That nets you some nice bats in your lineup stacks or one of the elite strikeout specialists in the $10000-plus price range.
Maybe one of the top questions on this slate was choosing between Cole hosting the San Francisco Giants or Chris Sale visiting the Tampa Bay Rays. I chose the path less taken (Sale had 40.8-percent ownership). Spending an extra $300 would’ve netted me Sale’s 33.05 points instead of Cole’s 25.3. Those additional 7.75 points would’ve increased my score from 171.1 to 178.85, securing a No. 6 finish and a $3000 payout.
No complaints from me though!
OF: Yasiel Puig ($3800, 0.8%)
SS: Chris Taylor ($3500, 1.5%)
OF: Matt Kemp ($3600, 1.1%)
C: Yasmani Grandal ($3800, 3.5)
Combined Salary: $14700
Points: 48
Few people are eager to use a Dodgers club that has followed-up their National League pennant season with a 20-27 start. A showdown with Colorado Rockies starter Chad Bettis doesn’t appear as the best matchup. Bettis has a 3.27 ERA. This contest was played away from Coors Field. Dodgers Stadium is renowned as a pitcher’s park.
Take a deeper look at the numbers. Bettis’s 4.82 SIERA suggested major regression was ahead. The Dodgers featured a slew of cheap bats that are highly ranked via wRC+ vs RHB. Among highly rated hitters were Grandal (149 wRC+), Kemp (124 wRC+), Bellinger (114wRC+), Taylor (104 wRC+) and Puig (136wRC+ vs RHB in 2017, has recently started to heat up).
My stack consisted of No. 3-4, 6-7. No. 5 Bellinger was not prioritized over the first baseman who was eventually used (Yonder Alonso). For whatever reason, Bellinger doesn’t have outfielder eligibility on DraftKings. Grandal’s zero means this would’ve worked better as a No. 4, 6-7 stack. My backup plan, Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez, scored 14 points with a home run vs St. Louis Cardinals starter Luke Weaver.
3B: Jose Ramirez ($5100, 3.0%)
1B: Yonder Alonso ($3300, 1.6%)
OF: Michael Brantley ($4400, 2.8%)
Combined Salary: $12800
Points: 59
TNYooper’s lock of the night. Tyler Chatwood has walked a fine line this season. His 3.14 ERA looks beautiful on the outside. But that 5.60 SIERA…that nasty, nasty SIERA…meant that a correction was in store. Why not stack an Indians lineup that has heated up over the last few weeks? The Indians are full of LHBs and switch-hitters who posed immense threat to Chatwood, who owned a career 4.71 xFIP vs LHB and 2018 5.54 xFIP vs LHB.
Chatwood pitched 2.2 innings before Mike Montgomery took over. Through four innings, the Indians held a 10-0 lead. Kind of disappointed to see Cleveland finish with five scoreless innings. But they did more than enough to keep this stack afloat. Francisco Lindor was another high quality play who finished with two doubles and two walks. He just didn’t fit into this schematics of the double-team stack. Not unless I moved Taylor to OF and then remove Brantley. That wasn’t my preference, although it would’ve worked better.
2B: Brian Dozier ($4000, 11.1%)
Points: 16
Opposing Tigers pitcher Matthew Boyd has exceeded early-season expectations. Looking destined as a Quad-A pitcher, Boyd’s 3.19 ERA is a far cry from his career 5.14 ERA or even his 4.27 SIERA. Regression was expected. Dozier is the Twins’ best player vs southpaws. A slump reduced his price to $4000. Dozier entered this contest with career totals vs Boyd that included 13-for-30 with a 1.318 OPS. Dozier’s impact was limited due to Minnesota not really having the type of RHBs who can exploit southpaws such as Boyd.
CLOSING NOTE
Anyone who’d like to discuss winning teams (whether it’s their own or someone else’s) can email me. Below are the most recent installments of the series. Visit my profile to check out the full selection. I started creating these in late April. I’ll do as many of them as time allows.
Previous MLB GPP Winners Study Guides:
Lixitandstixit, $7.5K, 5-10-18
Joshua Huffman was born and collegiately edumacated in Middle Tennessee. That said, Huffman spent 13-plus years with the type of Northern Wisconsinites and Yoopers who turn Nashville bars into alcohol wastelands whenever NFC North teams travel to play the Tennessee Titans. This makes him the NoBro of SoBros. He has published content for Yahoo! Sports (via Contributor Network) and Titan Sized, among other venues. At SoBros, he’ll provide Daily Fantasy Sports suggestions and broad sports coverage. Check out more of his musings at his blog, Millennial on Maple Street.
