Congratulations to jomar15. This individual was the DraftKings DFS MLB GPP winner of the MLB $50K Tablesetter contest on May 17, 2018. jomar15 won this grand prize pool and its $5000 prize when the lineup scored 225.55 points.
Please note that this isn’t a projections forecasting. This series was created to analyze what may have gone through the minds of those who created the teams. Maybe you’ll pick up on trends that will assist you when constructing your future submissions. What kind of pivots are others making on their teams. What are their strategies? Are there any reoccurring trends?
Let’s analyze the $5000 lineup.
DFS MLB DraftKings $5K Winning Lineup: jomar15, 5-17-18
This roster used $49800 of its $50000 salary. This slate featured nine matchups.
So jomar15 made a chart-topping lineup that appeared as if it was made with the earlier study guides in mind. This roster featured a couple high-octane offenses starring hitters facing below-average opposing pitchers that were due for regression. His starting rotation featured two traditionally $10000-plus pitchers available at a discount due to early-season performance. I almost created a lineup exactly like this—but I tried getting fancy and taking a “weather risk” with the Chicago Cubs. D’oh!
Stacking three of the Boston Red Sox’s top hitters when they scored six runs can lead to the foundation of a GPP winning lineup? jomar15 made a team that’s the primary example of not trying to overthink things. Sometimes, it’s as easy as playing the regression/progression cards.
SP: David Price ($8400, 14.9%)
SP: Chris Archer ($6900, 20.7%)
Combined Salary: $15300
Points: 60.55
Price started 2018 with a few duds en route to a 4.89 ERA that was supported with a 4.59 SIERA. However, most baseball enthusiasts understand that this is probably more so a product of a bad beginning than Price permanently becoming a sub-quality start pitcher. Price faced the perfect opportunity to turn around his season with a home matchup against a high-strikeout Baltimore Orioles offense. Price responded with eight strikeouts en route to a complete game victory and 35.75 points.
Archer faced a road matchup against one of MLB’s top three offenses vs right-handed pitchers. A daunting outlook for a 5.64 ERA pitcher whose strikeout totals had been waning. Not installing confidence was that he was on the road facing the highest-priced pitcher on the slate, Tyler Skaggs ($10400). What Archer did have for him? A 3.88 SIERA, a right-handed heavy lineup, and a pitcher’s park. Archer managed a respectable 24.8 despite only accumulating five strikeouts in a 7-1 Rays victory.
OF: Khris Davis ($3900, 9.6%)
3B: Matt Chapman ($3600, 4.3%)
1B: Matt Olson ($3600, 6.6%)
2B: Jed Lowrie ($4100, 10.3%)
Combined Salary: $15200
Points: 94
No love for the Oakland Athletics? The Athletics are full of RHP-punishing bats whose wRC+’s exceed 100. They have a good combination of LHBs and RHBs who were capable of exploiting a low-strikeout pitcher like Aaron Sanchez, whose 4.08 ERA didn’t match up with his 5.19 SIERA.
The Athletics are one of those West Coast teams that often get overlooked. That, and people may not want to deal with later starting times. If you’re obsessed with lower ownership percentages, then always—ALWAYS—keep an eye on Oakland when facing a pitcher due for regression. Great affordability and typically respectable ownership.
If you play multiple lineups, there’s zero reason not to know the A’s. When played correctly, they’re a DFS MLB fantasy godsend.
OF: Mookie Betts ($5800, 37.0%)
SS: Xander Bogaerts ($5200, 13.4%)
OF: J.D. Martinez ($4300, 28.2%)
Combined Salary: $15300
Points: 67
And there you have it. Arguably MLB’s best No. 1-5 lineup vs RHP. Just stack three of those hitters against an average-at-best pitcher such as Kevin Gausman. That’s all it took to create the base for this winning lineup from jomar15.
I’m not saying it’s easy to create a winning lineup. I’m just saying that trying to piece together multiple players from each team is unnecessary and complicated. Just check the previous study guides. They prove that.
Take smart risks. Don’t get caught up in ownership percentages or weather risks. That’s even truer on larger slates (eight teams or more). Focus more on the team situation than each individual player. If a team scores 10-plus runs, then they’ll have more than enough players who are exceeding value, especially if it’s a cheaper lineup.
C: Buster Posey ($4000, 6.9%)
Points: 4
Opposing pitcher Chad Bettis had just surrendered seven runs in his last outing. Even then, his 3.12 ERA was still out-of-line when compared to his 4.95 SIERA or even 4.81 career ERA. Taking a piece from the San Francisco Giants made sense. Bettis’s 2017 xFIP vs RHB of 5.32 demonstrates that he struggles more so against RHP. While Posey tends to fare better against LHP, he’s still more than capable as a No. 3 hitter when facing a RHP. One can’t get too picky with catchers.
The pick made sense. It just wasn’t the right night.
CLOSING NOTE
Anyone who’d like to discuss winning teams (whether it’s their own or someone else’s) can email me. Below are the most recent installments of the series. Visit my profile to check out the full selection. I started creating these in late April. I’ll do as many of them as time allows.
Previous MLB GPP Winners Study Guides:
Lixitandstixit, $7.5K, 5-10-18
Joshua Huffman was born and collegiately edumacated in Middle Tennessee. That said, Huffman spent 13-plus years with the type of Northern Wisconsinites and Yoopers who turn Nashville bars into alcohol wastelands whenever NFC North teams travel to play the Tennessee Titans. This makes him the NoBro of SoBros. He has published content for Yahoo! Sports (via Contributor Network) and Titan Sized, among other venues. At SoBros, he’ll provide Daily Fantasy Sports suggestions and broad sports coverage. Check out more of his musings at his blog, Millennial on Maple Street.
