SoBros—I’m back.
SoBros. SoBros.
The Jackpot Machine from The Twilight Zone feels lonely. Franklin isn’t around to pester into submitting hundreds of dollars into nightly DFS MLB submissions. It wants to give you the quarter that Franklin was never able to claim. Use it to win a minimum cash-out in the Quarter Arcade.
Feeling confident now? Excellent. Now start feeding it dollars. Then tens of dollars. then tens of hundreds of dollars. Then hundreds of thousands of dollars. Watch all the players work against your lineups. Lose money on game stacks because of weather postponements and flooded arenas. Watch a 15-game hitting streak end after you select player for the first time—on attempt No. 16.
Listen as the Jackpot Machine endlessly cheers you on. You’re just like LeBron James hitting that game-winner against Indiana in Game 5.
SoBros. SoBros.
All jokes aside: I’m the type of player who typically plays one, maybe two lineups per night. I submit more NFL teams because there are fewer slates when compared to lengthy NBA and MLB seasons. I wouldn’t recommend mass-submitting lineups until one became comfortable and experienced with game theory. DFS is far more than just submitting lineups with the biggest names, fanciest stat lines, or best matchups. There’s a reason the most successful DFS participants are often former online poker players and people whom are accustomed to risk-taking.
That brings us to this new series: DFS MLB GPP Winners Study Guide. My goal is to evaluate winning lineups. What pivots were made? Why did low-ownership players excel whereas high-ownership players bombed? What could have been the thought process of someone whose uniqueness led them to a GPP victory?
Hopefully, this series gives new daily fantasy sports players a better understanding of what they’re getting into. Others can use the series to improve his or her game-theorizing when making their teams.
THESE ARE NOT PROJECTIONS. This is a series that studies the past in an effort to assist future game-theorizing. I’ll do as many of these as time allows.
Let’s begin with an overview of the DFS MLB GPP winner of the MLB $325K Spring Series Opener contest on DraftKings. This contest was played on April 23, 2018. Petteytheft89 created a team that scored 228.7 points en route to a $100K grand prize. He is a former professional poker player who is the No. 11 ranked player on RotoGrinders.
DFS MLB DraftKings $100K Winning Lineup: petteytheft89, 4-23-18
This roster used $49700 of its available $50000 salary.
This was a pretty simple double-team stack. The batting lineup itself is a combination of a four-player New York Yankees stack and three-player Chicago White Sox stack with Trevor Story thrown into the mix. The rotation is composed of the slate’s most enticing five-digit salaried pitcher and a sub-$6000 option that created enough financial flexibility to stockpile Yankees bats in a high-grade matchup against gopher-ball specialist Jake Odorizzi.
Carlos Carrasco ($11700, 39.6%)
Kevin Gausman ($5800, 4.3%)
Combined Salary: $17500
Combined Points: 52.7
Not much to discuss about Carrasco. He lived up to his billing facing an offense that was top five in highest team strikeout percentages. What’s more fascinating is that petteytheft89 used the opposing pitcher—Kevin Gausman—as his second pitcher. Using both pitchers from the same game? That’s a unique strategy. Punting the opportunity for win points in hope that the sacrifice is paid off with both pitchers tossing solid games. No doubt that petteytheft89 was looking for the 2-1 type of game that was played.
There are at least three reasons for Gausman’s low ownership.
- He was facing off against a pitcher more than twice his salary. So he wasn’t expected to fare well
- Despite having a home matchup against an offense that ranks sixth-worst against RHP, recency bias suggests Gausman isn’t reliable. This creates a risky perception that most players don’t want to take. Can’t forget that the Indians offense has an overrated perception from the previous two seasons. In 2018, they’re off to a slow start.
- He was only $400 cheaper than Walker Buehler, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ top pitching prospect making his MLB starting debut against arguably the league’s worst offense: Miami Marlins. Buehler appeared to have a favorable matchup, situation, and more upside because he’s a strikeout specialist who has averaged double-digit K/9 numbers at nearly every minor league stop.
Pivot No. 1: Taking unpopular Gausman over the wildly popular Buehler (33.6% owned). Gausman 25, Buehler 17.5
Jose Abreu ($4000, 5.7%)
Yoan Moncada ($3900, 5.8%)
Welington Castillo ($3100, 5.0%)
Yolmer Sanchez ($3000, 0.9%)
Combined Salary: $14000
Combined Points: 96
This lineup was composed of Chicago’s 1-3-5-6 hitters. Left out of that alignment was No. 2 hitter Avasail Garcia and No. 4 hitter Nicky Delmonico. Both hitters have endured sluggish starts to their seasons, however, their exclusions were probably due more so to having enough money leftover to construct the outfield with all three of New York’s outfielder bats.
Most DraftKings players were focused on White Sox pitcher Carson Fulmer, whom was widely considered the most target-able pitcher on the slate. He was a last-minute fill-in for Miguel Gonzalez, who was earlier placed on the disabled list. What often happens is that people don’t focus on the opposing pitcher. Mariners pitcher Mike Leake entered the game with a .260 BABIP that was due for correction. A road contest with a rebuilding Jekyll and Hyde White Sox offense was the opportunity for that to transpire.
Abreu (127 wRC+, .239 ISO in 2017) and Moncada (118 wRC+, .212 ISO in 2017) are two of the league’s better hitters against right-handed pitching. All four hitters have started 2018 with a 120+ wRC+ rating vs RHP.
Pivot No. 2: Stacking White Sox hitters instead of stacking against the White Sox pitcher. Most DFS MLB gamers sank themselves when Fulmer and the bullpen fared decently. Petteytheft89 jumped out even further ahead of them when he played the opposite, largely forgotten side.
Aaron Judge ($5400, 18.3%)
Giancarlo Stanton ($5000, 11.5%)
Aaron Hicks ($3500, 5.1%)
Combined Salary: $13900
Combined Points: 55
Jake Odorizzi has a tendency to surrender home runs. His 1.88 HR/9 from 2017 proves that. So a matchup against the New York Yankees high-ISO bats when the wind is blowing out? Might as well play it. Even Giancarlo Stanton was had at a reasonable ownership due to recency bias against Stanton’s early-season struggles.
The lineup was composed of New York’s 2-4-6 hitters. Left out was No. 3 hitter Didi Gregorius and No. 5 hitter Gary Sanchez. Both players had decent games, however, they were costly and obviously not prioritized over other players from Chicago and New York. Both players would’ve been too expensive to add to the lineup unless constructed otherwise.
No pivots here; just knowing when to play the favorable hand.
Trevor Story ($4300, 14.6%)
Salary: $4300
Points: 25
Story tends to fare better against left-handed pitching. Probably not the ideal matchup to take him in. He still hit a home run against right-handed Bryan Mitchell in the first.
Joshua Huffman was born and collegiately edumacated in Middle Tennessee. That said, Huffman spent 13-plus years with the type of Northern Wisconsinites and Yoopers who turn Nashville bars into alcohol wastelands whenever NFC North teams travel to play the Tennessee Titans. This makes him the NoBro of SoBros. He has published content for Yahoo! Sports (via Contributor Network) and Titan Sized, among other venues. At SoBros, he’ll provide Daily Fantasy Sports suggestions and broad sports coverage. Check out more of his musings at his blog, Millennial on Maple Street.
