Congratulations to lixitandstixit. This individual was the DraftKings DFS MLB GPP winner of the MLB $75K Four-Seamer contest on May 10, 2018. lixitandstixit won this grand prize pool and its $7500 prize when the lineup scored 195.65 points.
Please note that this isn’t a projections forecasting. This series was created to analyze what may have gone through the minds of those who created the teams. Maybe you’ll pick up on trends that will assist you when constructing your future submissions. What kind of pivots are others making on their teams. What are their strategies? Are there any reoccurring trends?
Let’s analyze the $7500 lineup.
DFS MLB DraftKings $7.5K Winning Lineup: lixitandstixit, 5-10-18
This roster used $49500 of its $50000 salary. This slate featured nine matchups.
lixitandstixit utilized a relatively cheap double-team stack that gave him the luxury of spending just less than $20000 on his pitchers. His double-team stack included a five-player stack of the Baltimore Orioles and a three-player stack of the Seattle Mariners. His three-player stack came against the highest-priced pitcher of the slate’s 18 options: J.A. Happ ($11000).
SP: Miles Mikolas ($10200, 22.3%)
SP: Mike Foltynewicz ($9500, 15.1%)
Combined Salary: $19700
Points: 41.65
No super enticing pitcher options on this slate. Personally, I liked Mariners pitcher Mike Leake. At $4600, recency bias kept his ownership at a crisp 1.6 percent. His 23.55 was higher than each of the $10000-plus options on this slate. That included Happ (vs Mariners, $11000), Zack Greinke ($10200, vs Nationals), Walker Buehler ($10500, vs Reds) and Mikolas.
I’m a fan of lower-priced veterans. Their cheap salary comes with a great opportunity for significant ERA progression. Leake’s too dependable to continue pitching at a 6.28 ERA. His career ERA is 4.04. Sabermetrics agree with that assessment. Add MLB debuts to that list of preferred cheap options. Typically, I’m expecting strong results from someone enduring a milestone life moment.
That wasn’t a realistic option for lixitandstixit. Not unless he wanted to leave nearly $5000 on the table. His lineups gave him the risk-averse option to purchase two ~$10000ish starters. Neither pitcher was overly impressive, however, they were solid enough to complement a couple very productive lineup stacks.
C: Chance Sisco ($2900, 1.3%)
1B: Mark Trumbo ($3800, 4.5%)
SS: Manny Machado ($4900, 21.4%)
OF: Adam Jones ($3500, 10.5%)
OF: Trey Mancini ($3500, 10.0%)
Combined Salary: $18600
Points: 104
It takes testicles to play anyone on the Baltimore Orioles outside of Manny Machado. Good thing you don’t have to worry about Shinsuke Nakamura or A.J. Styles. No low-blows for playing Baltimore. At least not literally. Maybe metaphorically to your bank account when they score zero runs.
Playing Baltimore was a great idea. Consider the opposing starting pitcher, Ian Kennedy. He entered the game with a 2.92 ERA. That’s far off his career 4.05 ERA and current 4.10 SIERA. Kennedy was the top pitcher to target. You just had to put faith in the normally unproductive Baltimore bats.
lixitandstixit had the faith. Probably more faith than needed for fitting Trumbo into this mix. He received homers from each of the top-three hitters (Mancini-Jones-Machado).
(If you’ve read any of the previous study guides, there’s a reoccurring theme: study opposing pitcher current & career ERAs, SIERAs, and, to a lesser extent, BABIPs. These are huge on making projections and not just blindly living in the past. Most successful stacks occur against pitchers whose ERAs hit a regression period).
2B: Robinson Cano ($3600, 3.6%)
3B: Kyle Seager ($3500, 1.1%)
OF: Nelson Cruz ($4100, 6.8%)
Combined Salary: $11200
Points: 50
Stacking two Mariners’ left-handed bats against another left-handed pitcher who’s projected as the top pitcher on the entire slate? Kind of defies baseball logic. It’s worth noting that each of these hitters have endured at least a minimum amount of success vs Happ…just in very limited sample sizes.
The most surprising part of this stack was Seager hitting two homers en route to a 34. Of course, one of those came against the bullpen. Seager is capable, although not great against LHPs. He took advantage of a great situation when Happ appeared rattled after loading the bases during Inning No. 1. Seager hit a grand slam.
CLOSING NOTE
Anyone who’d like to discuss winning teams (whether it’s their own or someone else’s) can email me. Below are the most recent installments of the series. Visit my profile to check out the full selection. I started creating these in late April. I’ll do as many of them as time allows.
Previous MLB GPP Winners Study Guides:
Joshua Huffman was born and collegiately edumacated in Middle Tennessee. That said, Huffman spent 13-plus years with the type of Northern Wisconsinites and Yoopers who turn Nashville bars into alcohol wastelands whenever NFC North teams travel to play the Tennessee Titans. This makes him the NoBro of SoBros. He has published content for Yahoo! Sports (via Contributor Network) and Titan Sized, among other venues. At SoBros, he’ll provide Daily Fantasy Sports suggestions and broad sports coverage. Check out more of his musings at his blog, Millennial on Maple Street.
