Congratulations to Slimeysid. This individual was the DraftKings DFS MLB GPP winner of the MLB $200K Rally Cap contest on May 8, 2018. Slimeysid won this grand prize pool and its $25000 prize when the lineup scored 229.35 points.
Please note that this isn’t a projections forecasting. This series was created to analyze what may have gone through the minds of those who created the teams. Maybe you’ll pick up on trends that will assist you when constructing your future submissions. What kind of pivots are others making on their teams. What are their strategies? Are there any reoccurring trends?
Let’s analyze the $25000 lineup.
DFS MLB DraftKings $25K Winning Lineup: Slimeysid, 5-8-18
This roster used the entirety of its $50000 salary. This slate featured 14 matchups.
Slimeysid created a winning lineup with a three-team stack and five individual players. Then he included two starting pitchers who were due for massive ERA progressions. This was a balanced roster with no significant flaws. A lot of good decisions that are understandable when one looks beyond the game logs.
SP: James Paxton ($11000, 10.6%)
SP: Drew Pomeranz ($6200, 0.5%)
Combined Salary: $17200
Points: 64.35
We got a starting pitcher who featured a narrative (pitching in his home country), due for positive BABIP and ERA corrections, and momentum carrying over from his previous 16-strikeout performance against the Oakland Athletics. Paxton goes out and becomes the first Canadian to throw a no-hitter in his home country.
The other pitcher fared well-enough. Pomeranz was another pitcher due for some significant BABIP and ERA corrections after a few rough starts off the disabled list. He’s a strikeout-artist at a bargain price facing an explosive offense that’s often home run-or-strikeout. His only two blemishes came against his biggest obstacle: Giancarlo Stanton. Once again, Stanton crushing them lefties! Stanton hit two homers en route to a 35.
C: Salvador Perez ($3700, 3.7%)
3B: Mike Moustakas ($4100, 5.3%)
OF: Jorge Soler ($4000, 1.6%)
Combined Salary: $11800
Points: 81
Slimeysid stacked the Kansas City Royals’ No. 2-4 hitters against Dylan Bundy. Slimeysid realized a special night was on the horizon before Baltimore ended the first inning. That’s because Bundy failed to record an out before surrendering seven runs, four of which came on home runs. The Royals finished with 15 runs on a low-owned stack.
Prior to this, Bundy had two rough outings. This stack appears more about taking advantage of a pitcher who’s on a downward sprial. Perez is a much better hitter outside of Kansas City, Moustakas was probably Bundy’s biggest splits obstacle, and Soler has rediscovered his stroke since leaving the Chicago Cubs.
Not a widely owned stack. Nonetheless, it makes sense. A great pivot from a few other options, most notably Los Angeles Angels vs Colorado Rockies.
SS: Trevor Story ($4300, 25.6%)
Points: 21
This game featured notorious flyball pitcher Andrew Heaney (career 1.97 HR/9 vs RHP). Now put him in Coors Field? Yeah. One or 14-game slate, the Rockies’ right-handed bats were getting mega-ownership. Just so happens that Story (career 144 wRC+, .313 ISO vs LHP) lived up to the billing. No homers, but he had a double and triple in a 4-2 victory.
OF: Corey Dickerson ($4300, 5.2%)
Points: 20
So there’s a minimum-priced pitcher ($4000) on the slate who’s due for a BABIP correction. His 7.03 ERA is almost in-line with his 6.56 SIERA. That indicates that Lucas Giolito has been as bad as he has pitched up to this point, maybe worse. His career xFIPs are nearly 6.00 vs either-handed hitters. So why not take a left-handed hitter whose career vs RHP include 126wRC+ and .250 ISO? He wasn’t the only lefty who shined in a 10-6 Pirates victory.
2B: Scooter Gennett ($3800, 5.7%)
Points: 16
Another player where the game log doesn’t tell the whole story. Gennett is a career 115wRC+ and .174 ISO vs RHP. Those numbers have improved throughout the latter stages of his career. Compare that to vs LHP, which is 51wRC+ and .106 ISO. One way to gain advantages over other DFS MLB gamers is to use those sabermetric splits. DraftKings pricing doesn’t account for it.
Oh wait…opposing pitcher Jason Vargas was a southpaw? Well, technically, Gennett’s home run came on a two-run homer from RHP Hansel Robles. But it’s a good lesson for anyone studying pitcher slates: know their bullpens. The golden stacks come when the starters are chased early and the bullpen doesn’t stop the bleeding.
OF: George Springer ($4600, 3.8%)
Points: 14
Not much more of a given than Springer vs LHP. He was available at a discount because he was facing the Sean Manaea hype train. A good pitcher but his last two outings are showing him coming back down to earth.
1B: Brandon Belt ($4000, 1.2%)
Points: 13
Most of the San Francisco Giants’ heaviest-hitting bats are right-handed. This set up wonderfully for Aaron Nola, whom pitchs better at his home park and has always showcased sabermetric dominance against righties. If Nola improves against LHBs and away from his park, you’ll see him priced more often with the Noah Syndergaards and other $11000-plus pitchers.
Belt is one of the only consistent left-handed hitters in that lineup. He has had past success against Nola (4-of-6 for one double). Five of his 13 points came on a rare stolen base. That was Belt’s five SB in the last three seasons.
CLOSING NOTE
Anyone who’d like to discuss winning teams (whether it’s their own or someone else’s) can email me. Below are the most recent installments of the series. Visit my profile to check out the full selection. I started creating these in late April. I’ll do as many of them as time allows.
Previous MLB GPP Winners Study Guides:
Joshua Huffman was born and collegiately edumacated in Middle Tennessee. That said, Huffman spent 13-plus years with the type of Northern Wisconsinites and Yoopers who turn Nashville bars into alcohol wastelands whenever NFC North teams travel to play the Tennessee Titans. This makes him the NoBro of SoBros. He has published content for Yahoo! Sports (via Contributor Network) and Titan Sized, among other venues. At SoBros, he’ll provide Daily Fantasy Sports suggestions and broad sports coverage. Check out more of his musings at his blog, Millennial on Maple Street.
