DFS MLB GPP Study Guide: TNYooper (Me!), $75, 6-22-18

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Congratulations to TNYooper…which is me. Hello, again!

What is it about the 22nd? On May 22, I achieved a personal DFS MLB milestone when my $8 submission finished No. 15 out of 36,764 teams in the MLB $250K Rally Cap contest. That netted me $750.

On June 22, I had my second-most successful submission when my MLB $50K Tablesetter entry finished No. 23 out of 29,726 entries with a 198.3. This netted me $75 on a $2 entry fee. Had I played it on the main slate (MLB $250K Micro Millions Main Event), it would’ve finished No. 39 out of 29,441 teams. That would’ve been a $300 payout on a $9.99 entry fee. Additionally, I created a second team that finished No. 137 in the aforementioned Micro Millions Main Event and No. 15 in the Free Roll. Strangely, that No. 137 team netted me $100 on a $9.99 entry fee. Add in $5 on a free roll, and it was $180 on $11.99 entries.

Not bad for someone who normally plays 1-2 submissions per weekday competing against many professionals whom make 150-plus lineups every single day.

I’ve decided to complete a study guide on this lineup. It’s not a winner…but contestants can gain a perspective on when I’m finding success as opposed to projecting others’ game-theorizing tactics. My previous study guides have analyzed what others had done to create winning lineups. Completing those tutorials helped me to create enhanced lineups.

Let’s analyze my $75 ($300 if I weren’t a cheap ass) lineup.

NOTE: I’m referring to myself as TNYooper instead of I for keyword purposes.

DFS MLB DraftKings $75 Lineup: TNYooper, 6-22-18

This roster used $49500 of its $50000 salary. This slate featured 15 matchups.

TNYooper created his lineup with a focus on regression candidates from the Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox contest, a great matchup for a hot Colorado Rockies offense facing a high-SIERA pitcher, and a couple cheap pitchers due for progression. Those sub-$6000 pitchers allowed TNYooper to create a hybrid lineup featuring the best-ISO hitters from Boston, Colorado and Seattle.

It worked. Then again, it didn’t.

SP: Luis Castillo ($5800, 9.9%, 17.15)
SP: Alex Cobb ($4900, 1.4%, 22.15)
Combined Salary: $9700
Points: 39.30

TNYooper featured Cobb and Castillo as his second and third-favorite pitchers on this slate. Both pitchers appeared ready for major progressions. Cobb’s 7.14 ERA was nearly three points higher than his 4.42 SIERA. Castillo didn’t have as much of a discrepancy (5.77 ERA, 4.17 SIERA), but he had greater strikeout potential and home-field advantage against a Jekyll-and-Hyde Chicago Cubs offense that, for decades, has overachieved against elite pitchers but forced their fans to give back-of-the-rotation starters the “Cy (Insert No. 5 Starter Name Here)” nicknames.

(Have you ever felt that way about your team and how they often choke against weaker pitchers? There’s a reason for that. And once you learn how to interpret BABIP, ERA and SIERA data, then you should use that to find tremendous pitching values in DFS MLB).

TNYooper’s biggest mistake (which would’ve made this, at-worst, a Top 10 team depending on where I saved salary) came when he decided against pivoting from Castillo ($5800) to his favorite pitcher on the slate: Jon Gray ($7700). Gray scored a 36.95 following a 12-strikeout performance against the Miami Marlins. Choosing Gray would’ve put him $1400 in the red, forcing him to surrender LeMahieu or Desmond.

TNYooper had to choose between Gray (whose 5.89 ERA and .375 2018 BABIP didn’t match his 3.33 SIERA and .338 career BABIP) while losing a big bat…or Castillo and keep both bats. Keep in mind that Gray’s progression would likely mean longer and cleaner outings, which would make his 11.11 K/9 generate a very high score. He had a realistic upside of 50. Gray’s upside was one of the few times where it was truly worth paying $12000…and I could’ve played him at $7700.

And I said NO! I want ALL my bigger, sexier bats! I’m bringing SexyBats! Hmmmph!

Live and learn. Take note: When you see a high-strikeout pitcher priced below $8000 whose data suggests a future progression, then play him. Nick Pivetta, Domingo German, and Freddy Peralta earlier this week… their upside is tremendous. They’re risky, but they’re bound to have great games because strikeouts inflate their scores. They’ll often outscore the $10K-plus pitchers.

OF J.D. Martinez ($5300, 8.5%, 44)
OF: Mookie Betts ($5900, 7.6%, 11)
SS: Xander Bogaerts ($4700, 4.0%, 10)
  C: Christian Vasquez ($2600, 4.5%, 10)
Combined Salary: $18500
Points: 75

Who would’ve projected that a 1-0 game just one week earlier with the same starters would turn into a 14-10 Seattle Seahawks vs New England Patriots football score with the change of home-field advantage? Well, sabermetrics suggested regression for both opposing pitchers. Mariners starter Wade LeBlanc’s 2.63 ERA and .266 BABIP weren’t supported with a 3.98 SIERA and .288 career BABIP. The Red Sox’s explosive offense just saw him a week earlier. Why couldn’t they bring those numbers back to normalcy?

The overall stack was somewhat disappointing. Martinez hogging all those points for himself. But Martinez-Betts-Bogaerts are far-and-away Boston’s most effective batters against LHPs. Vasquez appeared like a decent punt candidate. His BABIP suggested progression and he was a cheap catcher in a projected high-scoring affair.

OF: Nelson Cruz ($4700, 3.3%, 44)
Points: 44

There’s a saying about knuckleballers: “If it knucks, it sucks.” I like to extend off that: “If it knucks, it sucks. But if it doesn’t knuck, then he sucks.” And I believe it’s Dave Campbell in the MLB The Show series whom commentates, “if it’s high let it fly, if it’s low let it go!”

Boston Red Sox starter Steven Wright entered the game with a 1.23 ERA. One week earlier, Wright had just completed seven innings against this same Mariners club. Wright’s ERA was deceptive: He had a 4.54 SIERA. His .202 BABIP was a big outlier compared to his career .277 BABIP.

If you weren’t attacking Wright, then you ain’t DFS MLB’ing right. Any knuckleballer on an off-night is nothing more than batting practice. Well, unless their problem revolves around control. Then you just watch your players store up bunches of 2s (BB-R-RBI are two-points each on DraftKings).

What better way to attack a huge-regression prone Wright than with one of MLB’s elite sluggers? Cruz was playing very well of late. A check into Wright’s history showcases that, even during his breakout 2016 season before injuries took effect, he fares much better away from Fenway Park.

Stacking Mariners…or playing at least one of Cruz or Hangier on any lineup…was nearly a must. Wright surrendered 10 earned runs in 3.1 innings. That 1.23 ERA is up to 3.38. What a difference one bad outing makes.

3B: Nolan Arenado ($5900, 36.4%, 24)
1B: Ian Desmond ($4900, 23.5%, 12)
2B: D.J. LeMahieu ($4800, 20.8%, 4)
Combined Salary: $15600
Points: 40

Introducing the letdown of the night. Three of MLB’s premiere LHB-smashers (okay, LeMahieu isn’t really a ‘smasher,’ but he’s more productive against LHPs) facing notorious flyball pitcher Wei-Yin Chen in Coors Field. Although Wei-Yin Chen’s data suggests more progression ahead, I felt the bad matchup outweighed any short-term progression.

The Rockies score 11 runs. What do three of their main hitters get me? A combined 40. Less than Martinez or Cruz individually. You could’ve thrown Trevor Story in here and it still would’ve only netted 47 for four of their five best hitters.

Lame-o guys. I was trying to bring SexyBats back to fantasy baseball. All I got was your best imitation of your bullpen. At least we can always count on Arenado. That 36.4 percentage played means that we can agree on that.

Isn’t it amazing though how, last week in a nine-run game against even-suckier LHP Yohander Mendez and the Texas Rangers, Arenado-Story-LeMahieu-Desmond combined for 92 (or was it 94?) points on far less salary? Would I have loved having that tonight instead.

Oh well. The thing about DFS MLB is that there are multiple paths to victory.

CLOSING NOTE

Anyone who has questions or concerns can email me. DO NOT EMAIL ME ASKING FOR PROJECTIONS. I’ll ignore requests. Below are the most recent installments of the series. Visit my profile to check out the full selection. I started creating these in late April. I’ll do as many of them as time allows.

Previous MLB GPP Winners Study Guides:

Pandamonious, $100K, 6-18-18

CoachS111, $20K, 5-30-18

TNYooper (Me!), $750, 5-22-18 (15th)

jomar15, $5K, 5-17-18

anilprao88, $25K, 5-11-18

Lixitandstixit, $7.5K, 5-10-18

Slimeysid, $25K, 5-8-18

Nickvanderlip, $20K, 5-7-18

dacoltz, $25K, 5-4-18

magneto999, $25K, 5-2-18

RoyalPain21, $20K, 5-1-18

bhy101, $25K, 4-30-18

nrpeto11, $5K, 4-25-18

petteytheft89, $100K, 4-23-18

Joshua Huffman was born and collegiately edumacated in Middle Tennessee. That said, Huffman spent 13-plus years with the type of Northern Wisconsinites and Yoopers who turn Nashville bars into alcohol wastelands whenever NFC North teams travel to play the Tennessee Titans. This makes him the NoBro of SoBros. He has published content for Yahoo! Sports (via Contributor Network) and Titan Sized, among other venues. At SoBros, he’ll provide Daily Fantasy Sports suggestions and broad sports coverage. Check out more of his musings at his blog, Millennial on Maple Street.

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