No one player has taken the college football world by storm quite like Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. He initially turned heads by coming into the National Championship game in relief of Jalen Hurts and winning the Crimson Tide yet another title. His momentum hasn’t stopped growing since.
Many consider Tagovailoa to be the front runner for the 2018 Heisman Trophy honors. It’s easy to see when you look at the history Alabama is making on offense each week. They’re undefeated and scoring a gaudy 56 points per game with Tagovailoa at the helm. If they continue to do this as the level of competition improves, people are going to start calling this one of the greatest college football teams of all time (some already are). But, as adamantly as all signs point towards Tagovailoa winning the Heisman, I actually think there’s a fair case to keep this one out of his trophy case as well.
Why Tua Tagovailoa Should Win the Heisman
It’s simple – what Tagovailoa is doing at Alabama is simply unprecedented. He passes the eye test as the best quarterback in the country, and if he continues on this trajectory, he’ll be the greatest quarterback to ever play for the Crimson Tide. Nationally, he’s considered the top guy in college football, and that alone is reason enough to give him the Heisman. But, it’s not just the eye test – Tagovailoa has quite the resume of stats to back it up.
His season stat line reads 76/101 for 1,495 yards and 18 touchdowns. He also has 122 rushing yards and two scores on the ground. Also worth noting that it is October, and Tagovailoa has yet to throw a single interception. He’s averaging a paltry 4.2 incompletions per game. In his last two games, he’s thrown more touchdowns than incompletions.
His 18 passing touchdowns on the season are good for 6th in the FBS. But, he has 66 less completions than the FBS touchdown leader, Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins (who has 25 TDs). He’s also attempted 97 less passes than Haskins. And yet, he finds himself up there with the nation’s best in terms of scoring production. He’s also leading the FBS in yards per attempt with 14.8.
But, perhaps his most impressive accomplishment is his passer efficiency rating – 254.8. That leads the FBS, and it isn’t even close. Tagovailoa is about 30 points ahead of Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray in that category. He’s making the most of the opportunity he’s been given, and his QBR shows just how dominant he’s been.
His 98.3 QBR is the highest through six games of any quarterback in the 15 seasons the metric has been tracked. So far, he has more 20-yard pass plays (28) than incompletions (25).
The most shocking fact about the season Tagovailoa’s having is that he’s put it all together without playing in the 4th quarter at all. He hasn’t had to. That’s how dominant this Alabama offense has been.
You may read this and think he’s a lock for the Heisman, but there is a scenario or two that could see the honors go to someone else.
Why Tua Tagovailoa Should Not Win the Heisman
I’m just playing devil’s advocate here, but how should we factor in that things are almost too easy for Tagovailoa at Alabama? Could you make an argument that he doesn’t mean as much to his team as other players? Do you even factor that in to the Heisman race (I think it’s one of the most frustrating things about the Heisman trophy – it means different things to different voters and there really isn’t an objective way to win it)?
Is he pulling his team up as much as, say, Benny Snell is pulling Kentucky up? What would happen to the Oklahoma offense with no Kyler Murray? How about Drew Lock at Missouri? If you remove Tagovailoa from the Crimson Tide offense and plug in Jalen Hurts, how much does Alabama really dip? I think it’s a fair question. Maybe they go from winning games 65-14 to winning games 42-14. Are we simply taking the best player from the best team here?
There are 23 FBS quarterbacks ahead of him in terms of passing yardage. So, he doesn’t have the gaudy yardage and touchdown stats, but it’s because he’s not playing full games. He doesn’t need to. Tagovailoa has yet to play in the 4th quarter. That means his percentages and ratings present his strongest case for candidacy. Is there a precedent for this?
These are the only two reasons I could see someone not voting for Tagovailoa, and instead voting for Haskins.
Prediction
There’s still a lot of real estate to cover. Half the season to be exact…a lot of things can happen – but Poppa Bear once wrote that if Tagovailoa stays healthy, he’s winning the Heisman. Book it. If the Heisman is supposed to go to the best player in college football, then it’s Tagovailoa…easy…but we haven’t always seen the Heisman go to the best player in college football.
I criticize his candidacy for not having any real “Heisman moments” just yet, but the reality is that he’s going to get plenty of opportunities with LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn left on the schedule. The more he plays, the more convinced I am that the Heisman is his to lose. Poppa Bear may be on to something…the only thing that’s going to take that away could be an injury.
Stoney Keeley is the Editor in Chief of The SoBros Network. He is a strong supporter of Team GSD and #BeBetter. “Big Natural” covers the Tennessee Titans, Alabama Crimson Tide football, the WWE, and a whole wealth of nonsense. Follow on Twitter @StoneyKeeley
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