Every Summer, Mike Lewis reveals the results of his in-depth study on NFL fan base. The Tennessee Titans rank 32nd on that list. Breaking news: there are only 32 teams in the NFL. Now, my initial reaction was defensive. “There’s no way – this is such bullshit!” But, the more I dug into Lewis’ study, the more I came around. I realized that the last five years have been the perfect storm of factors contributing to the overall decline of the Titans brand.
So, before I break down my thoughts on the matter, let’s take a look at the basics of how he framed his rankings.
The fundamental question that guides the analysis is simple – Who has the best fans in the NFL? For the business folks maybe we say this as – What are the best brands in the NFL? These are simple questions without simple answers. First, we have to decide what we mean by “best”. What makes for a great fan or brand? Fans that show up even when the team is losing? Fans that are willing to pay the highest prices? That are willing to follow a team on the road or social media?
Even after we agree on the question, answering it is also a challenge. How do we adjust for the fact that one team might have gone on a miraculous run that filled the stadium? Or perhaps another team suffered a slew of injuries? How do we compare fan behavior in a market like New York with fans in a place like Green Bay?
My approach to evaluating fan bases is to use data to develop statistical models of fan interest (more details here). The key is that these models are used to determine which city’s fans are more willing to spend or follow their teams after controlling for factors like market size and short-term changes in winning and losing.
I use three measures of fan engagement: Fan Equity, Social Equity and Road Equity. Fan Equity focuses on home box office revenues (support via opening the wallet). Social Media Equity focuses on fan willingness to engage as part of a team’s online community (support exhibited by joining social media communities). Road Equity focuses on how teams draw on the road after adjusting for team performance. These metrics provide a balance – a measure of willingness to spend, a measure unconstrained by stadium size and a measure of national appeal.
To get at an overall ranking, I’m going to use the simplest possible method. A simple average across the three metrics. (similar analyses are available for the NBA and MLB). The rankings are based on multiple years of data, use multiple performance measures and sophisticated statistical techniques. But nothing is perfect and I’d be remiss if I didn’t discuss some of the issues and controversies surrounding the NFL.
I think there’s definitely room to add merchandise sales as a metric – which teams are selling the most stuff? Which teams have the most merch available? Might be hard to quantify that into a single numerical value, but overall, I don’t have any real gripes with this study. These are all important factors to look when determining a fan base “good” or “bad.”
Though we’ve gotten better about it in recent seasons, Titans fans have long claimed that the Titans get no respect from the national media. Well, you can’t say that now and be surprised -or- offended when we pop up at the bottom of a list like this. So, what happened? How did we go from one of the best fan bases, and most notorious stadium environments in the league, to the absolute bottom dwellers?
The team wasn’t good for nearly a decade
First, you have to look at the overall brand. Is the product good? Is the team marketed well? And to me, the Titans brand hasn’t been good since Chris Johnson’s 2,000 yard season in 2009. Prior to 2017, it was the last big accolade we had to celebrate, and that season was the crack in the foundation that ultimately undid the Jeff Fisher regime. The Titans were the #1 seed in the AFC in 2008, but lost their first playoff game, at home, to the Baltimore Ravens. After that, it wouldn’t be until 2017 that the Titans would return to the playoffs. That’s a long time in the impatient NFL culture.
But, plain and simple, when your team stinks, no one’s going to show up. When your team stinks for nearly a decade, you’re asking fans to remain patient for a loooooooong time. That’s when you find out who your diehards are. 2014-15 were easily the absolute worst Titans teams in history, and that’s when the whole thing bottomed out.
So, not only was the product bad, but in the product being bad, there was absolutely no way to market it either. Think about it – can you polish a turd and have people clamoring to buy it? No.
Organizational turmoil
The team started performing poorly in 2009 and it sent the organization into a tailspin. Despite finishing the season 8-2, the team couldn’t overcome an 0-6 start, and failed to qualify for the playoffs a year after going 13-3. Included in that 2009 season The team went 6-10 in 2010, including a 1-8 finish. The poor performance and the tug-o-war between Jeff Fisher and Bud Adams over whether or not Vince Young should be “the guy” ultimately led to a coaching change. But, instead of a fresh start, they promoted Mike Munchak and we got more of the same. So, they canned him and made the worst possible coaching hire you could make: Ken Whisenhunt.
That was a disaster, and yet again, instead of bringing in some new blood, they simply took the ‘interim’ tag off of Mike Mularkey. Now, I’ll say that Mularkey’s work in cultivating a winning mentality and creating a strong locker room is underrated. But, as for on the field results, the Titans needed someone to bring them into the modern era. So, they hired Mike Vrabel and Matt LaFleur.
It wasn’t just the head coaches, either. Mike Reinfeldt and Ruston Webster both served stints as general manager from 2007-15 before Webster was fired and Jon Robinson was hired. That’s five coaches and three different GMs since the 2008 Titans playoff appearance.
The Nashville effect
When your team stinks and you live in Nashville, people are going to choose other options for entertainment. And, let’s not forget that professional sports are ultimately a form of entertainment. It’s similar to the Miami effect – people always assumed that when no one was at a Marlins game or a Dolphins game, it was because Miami is full of distractions, and there are simply more rewarding things to spend your money on. Nashville has arrived as one of those types of cities.
All of this piled up leads to less interest. Less interest leads to less money, and that is how we got here. So, none of us should be surprised to see how we stack up against other NFL fan bases.
Solutions
The easiest and most obvious solution is to just win fucking football games. Winning cures all. If you’re good, you’ll raise interest and so raise the profile of your brand. But, aside from the obvious, the Titans could take a page out of the Nashville Predators playbook in creating a brand. Create a better game experience and maybe that makes a difference.
But, this isn’t a nationally beloved team. If you lose interest locally, you lose interest everywhere. You damn sure don’t have a national following to back up the local market when it’s slacking. So, that’s where the stuff like branding and social media come into play. They hired Nate Bain and homeboy has been killing it. They’re doing things like Igniting the Fire to engage fans again. So, it seems the organization is starting to take this aspect of branding seriously.
We just put 10,000+ people downtown to look at the new uniforms. If that’s not a sign that the arrow is pointing upwards, then I don’t know what is. The team has won in back-to-back seasons now, including a road playoff win in Kansas City last season. There seems to be some organizational stability in place. Excitement and energy are returning among Titans fans. We’re on our way.
But, hey – shit happens. We need to see this as an opportunity to #BeBetter, and do our part. That said, I don’t expect the Titans to remain in the basement on this list for long.
Stoney Keeley is the Editor in Chief of The SoBros Network. He is a strong supporter of Team GSD and #BeBetter. “Big Natural” covers the Tennessee Titans, Alabama Crimson Tide football, the WWE, and a whole wealth of nonsense. Follow on Twitter @StoneyKeeley
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