Welcome to MLB DFS Lost in the Shuffle: Batters for the Nigg…Parsimonious, April 11.
Parsimonious is defined as stingy or frugal. Daily Fantasy Sports players would exhibit parsimonious attributes when they’re forced to find cheap roster fill-ins after they’ve spent two-thirds of their salary on two ace pitchers and a stud bat. Additionally, they could seek out lower priced contrarian options whose salaries may reflect projected ownerships and chances of getting lost in the shuffle of a larger game slate.
I know what you’re thinking…
Nigg…parsimonious? What the hell? Aren’t DFS players known as ‘risk-takers?’ You won’t even risk putting ‘niggardly’ in the title because someone will misinterpret it to mean something other than stinginess. You probably have mental breakdowns simply submitting teams in the Quarter Arcade.
Not true. I didn’t use ‘niggardly’ because spell-check has a tendency of hacking and “fixing” words without user permission. Besides, parsimonious makes me sound more intelligent.
And I don’t panic when submitting teams. My teams are always the best before lock. Panic doesn’t take over until 89 of my 90 PIR remains and my score remains at zero. Then I throw my hands up in the air, hire Beverly Harrison to create a dumpster fire, blame the DraftKings elitists for rigging all the contests against me, swear I’ll never play again, take one of those millennial naps where I sleep so long that I miss Get Up!, head back to DraftKings to see that I min-cashed, then submit a new team.
That’s my version of The Process. It repeats itself day after day.
Humor quota met. Editor “Big Natural” is satisfied. On to business.
This MLB DFS series was created to find $3500-or-less batters who are well-positioned to match or exceed their price tags. Many hitters within this price range or lower have a combination of splits advantages versus certain-handed pitchers, productive spots in the lineup, advantageous weather factors, and other factors that aren’t accounted for in salaries. An example from April 10 came with New York Mets infielder Asdrubal Cabrera. In one of the only good air index matchups of the night, $3300 Cabrera gave his users 28 points (~8.5x) after hitting two homers from the No. 4 cleanup spot. No. 3 hitter Wilmer Flores was another good option.
Check out FanGraphs to familiarize yourself with sabermetric terminology used below. Stats from same source. For quick reference, these were the 2017 MLB averages for the following statistics: 97 wRC+, .321 wOBA, .171ISO
Weather forecasts as of 1045AM CT. Weather updates are available at RotoGrinders. Air Density Index (ADI) at DailyBaseballData. This only evaluates the primetime slate. I’m not a BvP enthusiast due to limited samples, although I’ll mention it if it meets the Central Limit Theorem of x>30 at-bats. Prices via DraftKings.
I’ll analyze as many primetime slates as time allows. No short slates or weekends. You’ll mostly see me during NFL season. Want something added to series? Comments section below.
MLB DFS April 11 Game Slate
Blue Jays at Orioles
Reds at Phillies
Yankees at Red Sox
Mets at Marlins
Pirates at Cubs
Angels at Rangers
MLB DFS April 11 Pitchers Slate
David Price (vs Yankees, $11900)
Jon Lester (vs Pirates, $10700)
Masahiro Tanaka (at Red Sox, $9300)
Marco Estrada (at Orioles, $8500)
Nick Pivetta (vs Reds, $8200)
Luis Castillo (at Phillies, $7700)
Zack Wheeler (at Marlins, $7500)
Kevin Gausman (vs Blue Jays, $6000)
Steven Brault (at Cubs, $5800)
Matt Moore (vs Angels, $5700)
Jaime Barria (at Rangers, $5300)
Jarlin Garcia (vs Mets, $4600)
MLB DFS Implied Runs Projections (as of 1045AM CT)
Rangers (5.83)
Angels (5.67)
Cubs (4.9)
Mets (4.65)
Orioles (4.57)
Blue Jays (4.43)
Red Sox (4.06)
Yankees (3.94)
Phillies (3.86)
Marlins (3.85)
Reds (3.64)
Pirates (3.6)
Trey Mancini (Orioles, 1B/OF, $3200 — 126wRC+, .223ISO, .362wOBA vs $ 2017)
PITCHER NOTE: Throughout his career, Marco Estrada has been lights out against most active Orioles hitters. Estrada has always been susceptible to the long ball, evidenced with his career 1.36HR/9. In 2017, those numbers crept up toward 1.5HR/9. Mancini appears like he could have success and at-bats as the leadoff hitter. His problem involves his supporting cast. Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Jonathan Schoop and Tim Beckham combine for just 17 hits in 105 career at-bats vs Estrada.
Justin Bour (Marlins, 1B, $2900 — 139wRC+, .252ISO, .384wOBA vs R 2017)
Derek Dietrich (Marlins, 2B/OF, $2900 — .194ISO vs R 2017)
PITCHER NOTE: Zack Wheeler was once considered a top prospect before missing two full seasons with a UCL tear along with other injuries. His 2017 season ended in July following a stress reaction in his throwing arm. Before that, his last eight starts featured an ERA exceeding seven. His career numbers against lefties including a 166.1 innings sample size where he’s surrendered a 1.61WHIP and 4.45 xFIP. This is one of the few warm weather April games that allows for the baseball to travel further.
Curtis Granderson (Blue Jays, OF, $3400 — 114wRC+, .255ISO, .343wOBA vs R 2017)
PITCHER NOTE: In 2017, Kevin Gausman was a tad more susceptible to lefties. A 76.2 innings sample saw him allowing lefties a 1.63 WHIP and 4.92xFIP. Then again, he’s no magician against righties, neither. His career 1.47 HR/9 against righties comes with 330.2IP. Granderson has had four career at-bats vs Gausman. Two of them left the yard.
Javier Baez (Cubs, 2B, $3300 — 132wRC+, .266ISO, .378wOBA vs L 2017)
PITCHER NOTE: Steven Brault has 76 career innings pitched.. Expect him to get tested against a lineup that should consist of at least four, maybe five different hitters who posted wRC+ of at least 128 against lefties last season (Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Contrreras, Almora Jr). The big problem here is that Baez typically bats No. 8 in an NL lineup whose production is Jekyll and Hyde on any given night.
Joshua Huffman was born and collegiately edumacated in Middle Tennessee. That said, Huffman spent 13-plus years with the type of Northern Wisconsinites and Yoopers who turn Nashville bars into alcohol wastelands whenever NFC North teams travel to play the Tennessee Titans. This makes him the NoBro of SoBros. He has published content for Yahoo! Sports (via Contributor Network) and Titan Sized, among other venues. At SoBros, he’ll provide Daily Fantasy Sports suggestions and broad sports coverage. Check out more of his musings at his blog, Millennial on Maple Street.
