Good day. I’m the new DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) analyst for SoBros Network. The SoBros Editor, “Big Natural” Stoney Keeley, is a former high school classmate whom was a writer when I was an editor at Titan Sized (2013-14). I was publishing 27,843 articles per day while he was posting at-will. Then I took a four-year sabbatical from writing. Now Big Natural has his own blog where he publishes 74,987 articles per day. Big Natural is my editor and I post at-will.
SoBros Network covers many different Nashvillian interests. But there was a glaring omission: gambling. Few people know that better than me. Nearly all of my college education was paid via the Tennessee Education Lottery Scholarship program. My dad’s lottery habit probably funds half of that. I hate lottery games but enjoy the mental stimulation from daily fantasy sports. My father has that never-quit attitude like Franklin Gibbs from The Twilight Zone. I’m the millennial who loses a $5 entry fee, blames whoever is president at time of defeat, then takes a nap for a week.
Sorry, folks. Editor Big Natural requires at least one attempt at humor in every article. I figured this was better than explaining how I nearly titled this DFS series, “MLB DFS 69 Report” due to a daily fantasy network, Dwight Powell, Rick Carlisle’s wife, and my misunderstanding of how donkeys and fishes tilt when $100s worth of entry fees are engulfed in flames. That would’ve made this a $6K-9K series.
Enough nonsense. This is my second full season playing DFS MLB. Season No. 1 was a learning experience. One thing I learned from 2017 deals with the concept of this series. Many plays—solid plays—get lost in the shuffle. Consider DraftKings pricing. Pitchers are priced from $4000 to $13000-plus. DFS Players stack hitters against the $4000 to $6000 pitchers, sometimes up to $7000 depending on the slate and/or various circumstances. They’re more confident using $9000-plus pitchers. Experts tend to hype certain batters/pitchers to the point where one thinks they’re can’t-misses (e.g. Robbie Ray vs Rockies, Mar 30).
Then there’s a group of middlings situated around $7000 to $9000. Many of those lost-in-the-shuffle pitchers are within this price range. They’re not bad options; they’re just flawed or in difficult environments. They can prove as the perfect contrarian play when the favorite doesn’t work out.
Example: Johnny Cueto vs Dodgers, Mar 30. At $7900, Cueto is a former 2014 and 2016 All-Star who’s capable as anyone of elite performances. However, an injury-plagued 2017 and an unfavorable road matchup had his MLB $250K Tape Measure Home Run GPP ownership at 7.4 percent. Ray, who cost $800 more, had 45.1-percent ownership facing a high-powered Rockies offense.
Cueto outscored Ray, 23.15 to 13.25.
That’s the goal here. Trying to find those Cuetos when everyone else’s high-ownership plays aren’t going as planned. A conversation starter for locating hidden gems lost in the shuffle. Everyone pays attention to the studs and duds. This series will focus on the splits and environmental factors of midcard pitchers and the batters whom may have an advantage against them.
Check out FanGraphs to familiarize yourself with sabermetric terminology used below. Stats from same source. Weather forecasts as of 700AM CT. Weather updates are available at Rotogrinders. This only evaluates the primetime slate. I’m not a BvP follower due to limited samples, although I may mention it if it meets the Central Limit Theorem of x>30 at-bats.
Will try to analyze as many primetime slates as time allows. Will not do short slates or weekends. You’ll mostly see around during NFL season. Want to see something added to series? This is my first time writing this series. Let me know in the comments section below.
Hyun-Jin Ryu (Dodgers, $8900)
HANDEDNESS: Left
OPPONENT: at Diamondbacks
vs LHH: 31.2IP, 7.39K/9, 2.27HR/9, 1.64WHIP, 4.06 xFIP, .403 wOBA (2017)
vs RHH: 95.0IP, 8.53K/9, 1.33HR/9, 1.27WHIP, 4.17 xFIP, .312 wOBA (2017)
Weather Projection: Dome
Biggest Threats: Paul Goldschmidt ($4900), AJ Pollock ($4500), Nick Ahmed ($3100)
SUMMARY: Critics have suggested that the newly installed humidor will have a massive effect on the Diamondbacks’ offensive output. As far as DFS goes, it took two games before a Goldschmidt-Pollock-Owings-Ahmed-Murphy Diamondbacks stack won a headline GPP. They chased Rockies southpaw Tyler Anderson after he surrendered seven earned runs in 2.1 innings. It’s comical to see some of those low ownerships. People are buying into that humidor narrative.
Ryu is another southpaw whom the aforementioned potential threats could feast on. This isn’t the same situation though. Anderson’s 2017 problems against righties carried over into 2018. Ryu’s problems were against lefties, albeit a limited sample size of 31.2 IP. None of those three Diamondbacks are lefties. Goldschimidt and Pollock have enjoyed successes against Ryu, albeit fewer than 30 at-bats.
August 30, 2017 featured Ryu surrendering six earned runs and three homers to Diamondbacks hitters in Arizona. That was the only time he surrendered more than five earned runs all season. It was his third of four three-homer contests.
Jaime Garcia (Blue Jays, $8500)
HANDEDNESS: Left
OPPONENT: vs White Sox
vs LHH: 36.0IP, 9.5K/9, 1.00HR/9, 1.14WHIP, 2.82xFIP, .293 wOBA (2017)
vs RHH: 121.0IP, 6.77K/9, 1.04HR/9, 1.49WHIP, 4.59xFIP, .333 wOBA (2017)
Weather Projection: Dome
Biggest Threats: Jose Abreu ($4500), Matt Davidson ($4000), Tim Anderson ($3900), Avasail Garcia ($3800), Welington Castillo ($3400)
SUMMARY: Jaime Garcia is more of a groundball specialist who surrenders greater contact to right-handed hitters. Not an encouraging trait when one considers how the White Sox scored 14 runs off Royals southpaw Danny Duffy and the rest of the bullpen during Opening Day. The White Sox have young bats that should continue to blossom into one of MLB’s surprising offenses.
Consider some of the 2017 LH splits of the potential threats. A.Garcia (wRC+ 177, ISO .152), Abreu (wRC+ 173, ISO .275), Castillo (wRC+ 147, ISO .226), Anderson (wRC+ 116, ISO .157), and Davidson (wRC 100, ISO .205). They’re a right-handed heavy lineup that will have more games like Opening Day. Always strongly consider stacking White Sox hitters against average-or-below lefties. Do it while they’re this cheap.
Chad Bettis (Rockies, $8200)
HANDEDNESS: Right
OPPONENT: at Padres
vs LHH: 212.0IP, 6.71K/9, 0.76HR/9, 1.44WHIP, 4.19xFIP, .323wOBA (career)
vs RHH: 204.2IP, .6.64K/9, 1.45HR/9, 1.51WHIP, 4.24xFIP, 370wOBA (career)
Weather Projection: Humidity 76%, Temp 59, Precip 5-15%, Wind 4-6mph out
Biggest Threats: Will Myers ($3500 day-to-day), Jose Pirela ($3200), Freddy Galvis ($3200)
SUMMARY: Bettis will likely receive higher ownership if for no other reason than he’s pitching at Petco Park on a sloppy slate without a truly appealing option below the $10,000 price range. Padres scored 10 runs combined in their opening three games. He’s more susceptible to power-righties. The Padres provide a small value as a contrarian stack (added with Austin Hedges considering his .207 ISO vs righties). I lean toward Bettis having a fairly decent outing.
Andrew Triggs (Athletics, $8000)
HANDEDNESS: Right
OPPONENT: vs Rangers
vs LHH: 54.0IP, 7.83K/9, 1.00HR/9, 1.26WHIP, 3.97xFIP, .301wOBA (career)
vs RHH: 67.2IP, 7.71K/9, 1.06HR/9, 1.30WHIP, 3.82xFIP, .315wOBA (career)
Weather Projection: Humidity 62-70%, Temp 57-60, Precip 2-4%, Wind 10mph out
Biggest Threats: Elvis Andrus ($4000), Joey Gallo ($3800), Adrian Beltre ($3500), Robinson Chirinos ($3000)
SUMMARY: Triggs is a bit of a mystery with his limited career sample size. He started 2017 very well—an April 18 home outing where he pitched six scoreless innings and scored a 25.7 against the Rangers. His season ended in June after needing hip surgery and only one of his last four appearances were quality starts. The Rangers have some high-ISO bats that could feast on any remaining weaknesses.
Matt Harvey (Mets, $7800)
HANDEDNESS: Right
OPPONENT: vs Phillies
vs LHH: 40.1IP, 6.25K/9, 2.68HR/9, 2.08WHIP, 6.26xFIP, .426wOBA (2017)
vs RHH: 52.1IP, .6.71K/9, 1.55HR/9, 1.39WHIP, 4.71xFIP, 335wOBA (2017)
Weather Projection: Humidity 56-63%, Temp 41-42, Precip 3-5%, Wind 7mph out
Biggest Threats: Big Natural Stoney Keeley (…that means everyone?)
SUMMARY: I’d assume this will end up as a favorite for stacking-against purposes. Harvey was terrible last season and was pretty easy money. Anyone creating multiple stacks should try at least a few against him. For what it’s worth, Harvey has pitched better this spring.
Sean Newcomb (Braves, $7600)
HANDEDNESS: Left
OPPONENT: vs Nationals
vs LHH: 28.2IP, 10.05K/9, 0.31HR/9, 1.43WHIP, 3.82xFIP, .330wOBA (2017)
vs RHH: 71.1IP, 9.59K/9, 1.14HR/9, 1.63WHIP, 4.81xFIP, .337wOBA (2017)
Weather Projection: Humidity 40-55%, Temp 68-73, Precip 1-2%, Wind 6mph side
Biggest Threats: Anthony Rendon ($4400), Ryan Zimmerman ($4000), Michael Taylor ($3700), Howie Kendrick ($3800), Wilmer Difo ($3000)
SUMMARY: Newcomb has among the highest strikeout potential of all the pitchers on this slate. That and this game is one of the weather friendliest for pitchers. People may shy away from him seeing that he’s facing an elite Nationals offense that scored 21 runs in a three-game sweep. In his only game against them last year on July 9, Newcomb had seven strikeouts but surrendered four earned runs in four innings.
J.C. Ramirez (Angels, $7500)
HANDEDNESS: Right
OPPONENT: vs Indians
vs LHH: 69.1IP, 6.62K/9, 2.08HR/9, 1.47WHIP, 5.05xFIP, .374wOBA (2017)
vs RHH: 78.0IP, 6.23K/9, 0.58HR/9, 1.23WHIP, 4.05xFIP, .282wOBA (2017)
Weather Projection: Humidity 72-80%, Temp 58-61, Precip 3-5%, Wind 5-7 mph out
Biggest Threats: Jose Ramirez ($4600), Francisco Lindor ($4500), Jason Kipnis ($4100), Yonder Alonso ($3900), Lonnie Chisenhall ($3600)
SUMMARY: You can tell via the simple sabermetrics that Ramirez was far more successful against right-handed hitters. The Indians are loaded with left-handed power hitters. 2017 lefties vs RHP splits include J.Ramirez (wRC+ 149, .272 ISO), Alonso (wRC+ 141, .235 ISO), Chisenhall (wRC+ 120, .249 ISO), Lindor (wRC+ 110, .236 ISO) and Kipnis (wRC+ 93, .200 ISO). That doesn’t include Bradley Zimmer (another lefty) and Edwin Encarnacion (who can bash anyone).
Joshua Huffman was born and collegiately edumacated in Middle Tennessee. That said, Huffman spent 13-plus years with the type of Northern Wisconsinites and Yoopers who turn Nashville bars into alcohol wastelands whenever NFC North teams travel to play the Tennessee Titans. This makes him the NoBro of SoBros. He has published content for Yahoo! Sports (via Contributor Network) and Titan Sized, among other venues. At SoBros, he’ll provide Daily Fantasy Sports suggestions and broad sports coverage. Check out more of his musings at his blog, Millennial on Maple Street.
